The Analytical Yankee Fan

According to these men, the Yankees are going to miss the playoffs. They say it year-in and year-out, not pausing once to think about the crow they will undoubtedly be eating come October.

I need someone to explain Phillips’ and Rosenthal’s logic to me.  How are the Yankees going to miss the 08 playoffs? This is a team which won 94 games last season to make it to October on the strength of the Wild Card. The Yankees swept the Cleveland Indians twice during the regular season, and took the season series from the Red Sox. From the all-star game on, they were easily the best team in baseball.
There were injuries to Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina and Carl Pavano. Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui played with nagging injuries the entire season. Bobby Abreu started the season with an oblique strain, while Robinson Cano got off to a slow start. Derek Jeter was battling leg problems the last 2 months of the season. We had to turn to guys like Chase Wright, Tyler Clippard and Matt DeSalvo to make spot starts. Still, this team won 94 games last season, while scoring 968 runs.

In my opinion, it’s simple logic which shows that the Yankees are going to make it to the playoffs–and make it there by winning the division. Hell, the Yankees were the better team last season, when it came to head-to-head match-ups against the Red Sox This is a much-improved team, a concept which Phillips and Rosenthal can’t seem to grasp.

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I’ll break it down simply for the simpletons:

2007 Opening Day Rotation- Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Pavano, Igawa

2008 Opening Day Rotation- Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Kennedy, Hughes

Which is the better rotation?  Pretty friggin simple, isn’t it? Would you rather rely on these young phenoms, or Kei Igawa and Carl “Glass Jaw” Pavano?

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Another round o’ rocket science: 

2007 Opening Day Bullpen- Rivera, Farnsworth, Vizcaino, Proctor, Bruney, Henn, Myers

2008 Opening Day Bullpen- Rivera, Chamberlain, Hawkins, Ohlendorf, Farsworth, Bruney, Traber

Six words: Joba Chamberlain for a full season.

Ross Ohlendorf throws a 97 mph sinking fastball with pinpoint control and a biting mid-80’s slider. Traber is heads-above any of the lefties from the 07 campaign. Brian Bruney showed up in-shape, 25lbs lighter, with improved mechanics and command. Hawkins numbers in relief are BETTER than Luis Vizcaino’s.

Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera. Is he still the same automatic closer? Not necessarily. But to anybody hoping he was finished, better wait another season. He’s still pinpointing a 95mph cut-fastball.

Case and point–the 2008 Yankees bullpen is drastically better than the 2007 Yanks’.

This is hard stuff to figure out, isn’t it?
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Rosie and Phillips, don’t make me go all Newton on you, now: 

2007 Yankees Bench for much of the season- Wil Nieves, Josh Phelps, Miguel Cairo, Melky Cabrera, Bronson Sardinha, Kevin Thompson

2008 Yankees Opening Day Bench- Jose Molina, Shelly Duncan, Morgan Ensburg, Wilson Betemit. Plus possible call-ups of young studs like Brett Gardner or Austin Jackson.

Need I even explain myself here? If anyone would even bother arguing with me that that 07 squad had a better bench, I’d have no choice but to chuck them into a padded room, forever throwing away the key.

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Offense-

The offense remains basically the same. I agree with Phillips and Rosie when they say that there has to be a regression from Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada; that’s a given, they both had career seasons.

With that said, you have to expect continued improvement from Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera.

You have to expect an improved campaign out of Johnny Damon, who arrived at Camp this season, in much better condition.

Hideki Matsui is now a full-time DH, which is where he has excelled offensively.

Bobby Abreu will not have the slow first half he had last season, because this year he showed up 10lbs lighter, in much better physical condition. Add to that the fact that there’s no oblique strain forcing him out of Spring Training for two weeks.

Hell, even Giambi showed up in great shape.

The Yankees WILL score 1,000 runs. Mark my words. This is the best offense in baseball. The entire lineup is capable of batting for average. You have speed guys: Jeter, Damon, Abreu, Rodriguez and Cabrera, who are all capable of swiping 20 bags, any given season. You have five men who can drive in 100+ RBI in Rodriguez, Abreu, Matsui, Giambi and Cano. A great back-up catcher in Jose Molina. There is right-handed pop off the bench in Duncan and Ensburg. Collectively, this team is also capable of posting the best OBP in baseball. Power, speed, OBP, slugging, I have a hard time thinking that any offense compares. Even the Tigers.

Earth to Rosie, earth to Phillips–this is a much-improved Yankees. Being much-improved after winning 94 games kind of means that you’re probably the class of the American League, considering the teams who finished ahead of you with 96 wins(Red Sox and Cleveland) have virtually stayed the same.  Is it really that complicated?